Data report · Annual
The 2027 Bracket Data Report
What brackets actually do versus what people pick — built from real tournament results, long-run seed history, and live crowd picks from pools hosted on this site. Everything on this page is free to cite with attribution.
upsets in the 63 games of the 2026 tournament — one in four games broke seed
Texas over Gonzaga (74–68) — a First Four play-in team's run to the regional semifinal was the biggest shock of 2026
won the 2026 title, 69-63 over #2 UConn — the favorite script held at the very end
of Round-of-64 games in 2026 were upsets (8 of 32) — the first round stays the bracket-killer
2026, round by round
| Round | Games | Upsets |
|---|---|---|
| Round of 64 | 32 | 8 |
| Round of 32 | 16 | 4 |
| Regional semifinals | 8 | 3 |
| Regional finals | 4 | 1 |
| National semifinals | 2 | 0 |
| Championship | 1 | 0 |
Where the #1 seeds finished
- Duke — eliminated in the Regional finals
- Michigan — won the championship
- Arizona — eliminated in the National semifinals
- Florida — eliminated in the Round of 32
Notable 2026 upsets
- #12 High Point over #5 Wisconsin (Round of 64)
- #11 VCU over #6 North Carolina (Round of 64)
- #11 Texas over #6 BYU (Round of 64)
- #11 Texas over #3 Gonzaga (Round of 32)
- #9 Iowa over #1 Florida (Round of 32)
- #9 Iowa over #4 Nebraska (Regional semifinals)
- #6 Tennessee over #2 Iowa State (Regional semifinals)
Long-run seed performance (the baseline)
Historical title and national-semifinal rates per seed slot, across decades of the 68-team era. Use it as the prior: when a pick disagrees with this table, that pick — not the table — needs the argument.
| Seed | Title rate | Semifinal rate |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | 15.5% | 40% |
| #2 | 3.2% | 27% |
| #3 | 2.6% | 17% |
| #4 | 1.3% | 13% |
| #5 | 0.5% | 9% |
| #6 | 0.5% | 8% |
| #7 | 0.4% | 6% |
| #8 | 0.4% | 5% |
Sources & method
- 2026 results: ESPN public scoreboard feed, all 67 games of the tournament, fetched 2026-09-27. Upset = winner had the numerically higher seed.
- Seed baseline: long-run historical frequencies per seed slot (public statistics, rounded). It is a prior, not a prediction.
- Crowd picks: anonymous aggregate of brackets submitted on this site, refreshed live, with the sample size always shown.
Cite this report
"The 2027 Bracket Data Report", MatchupKing — matchupking.com/reports/bracket-data-2027 (retrieved 2027). Attribution is all we ask.
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